It is not going to get better

Some of us will recall the D:Ream song which became Tony Blairs’ and New Labour anthem Things can only get better

I saw someone linking it a week ago in an attempt to lighten the mood.
Unfortunately it is not going to get better. In the next 2 weeks it is going to get a whole lot worse.
Check out the table below:-
UK on 19th March Deaths 144
Italy on 19th March Deaths 3405
So assuming we track Italy trend there will be 3405 deaths in 14 days time
That assumes our trend line is same. The stats again would indicate we are worse. See the graph below. Unless UK HMGov performance improves we could see much higher deaths.

Not for debate now, but it will be when the dust has settled. Check out South Korea performance. When Italy had 2500 deaths. South Korea had 100 These KPI’s will be a brutal and inescapable testimony as to the performance of our Government who swore an oath to protect and serve those that put them in power.

So what can we expect. NY Times article yesterday about Italy

The government has sent in the army to enforce the lockdown in Lombardy, the northern region at the center of the outbreak, where bodies have piled up in churches. On Friday night, the authorities tightened the nationwide lockdown, closing parks, banning outdoor activities including walking or jogging far from home.

What to do?

Lock Down
For those with vulnerable members of the Family. Isolate them within the best “Citadel” you can provide. And then lock them away. Adopt the strictest access policy possible. For the young adults in the family. Move out of the Citadel. Support your Locked Down relatives. With NHS at 100% capacity you cannot afford to catch COVID 19. Based on evidence from other countries…Death rates in the next few weeks will be up to 10 times that of latter stages

Think local. Problems with hoarding from the main supermarkets will magnify as the digital savvy block out online capacity and then over order to ensure no single point of failure. My email into No 10 here offered a solution, but in the short term…expect issues with your food supply chain. As they say…we are only 3 meals away from Anarchy…expect to see violence as the strongest take action to obtain what they need to survive. So find the local suppliers of basic food stuffs. Expect to pay more…Eat less and lose some weight. As many are already… and if you can, help out those who are vulnerable and without any support.

Good luck

Deaths in Italy and UK from COVID 19 by date

Thanks to Dr Chris Day for his LInkedIn post and this data

COVID 19 Deaths by Country

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Gory Details, including UK regions, here

Thanks NeilW. Good data. Even more impressed by his closer

Q: I’m a journalist. Will you appear on my TV show?

No. You should have a real epidemiologist on your TV show.

Mark Handley, UCL.